Papers in Refereed Journal:

(* indicates papers involving students and sponsored postgraduates)

  • 164. *Hayes, D.J., D.W. Kicklighter, A.D. McGuire, M. Chen, Q. Zhuang, F. Yuan, J.M. Melillo, and S.D. Wullschleger. 2014. The impacts of recent permafrost thaw on land-atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange. Environmental Research Letters 9, 12 pages, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/045005.
  • 163. Klapstein, S.J., M.R. Turetsky, A.D. McGuire, J.W. Harden, C.I. Czimczik, X. Xu, J.P. Chanton, and J.M. Waddington. 2014. Controls on the methane released through ebullition affected by permafrost degradation. Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences 119:418-431, doi:10.1002/2013/G002441.
  • 162. Euskirchen, E.S., T.B. Carman, and A.D. McGuire. 2014. Changes in the structure and function of northern Alaskan ecosystems when considering variable leaf-out times across groupings of species in a dynamic vegetation model. Global Change Biology 20:963-978, doi: 10.1111/gcb.12392.
  • 161. Gray, S.T., A. Bennett, W.R. Bolton, A.L. Breen, T. Carman, E. Euskirchen, H. Genet, E. Jafarov, J. Jenkins, T. Kurkowski, M. Lindgren, P. Martin, S. McAfee, A.D. McGuire, S. Marchenko, R. Muskett, S. Panda, J. Reynolds, A. Robertson, V. Romanovsky, T.S. Rupp, K. Timm, and Y. Zhang. 2013. Using integrated ecosystem modeling to understand climate change. Alaska National Parks Journal 12(2):12-17.
  • 160. McGuire, A.D., L.D. Hinzman, J. Walsh, J. Hobbie, and M. Sturm. 2013. Introduction for invited feature "Trajectory of the Arctic as an Integrated System". Ecological Applications 23:1743-1744.
  • 159. Hinzman, L.D., C. Deal, A.D. McGuire, I Polyakov, J. Walsh, and S.H. Mernild. 2013. Trajectory of the Arctic as an integrated system. Ecological Applications 23:1837-1868.
  • 158. *Kicklighter, D.W., D.J. Hayes, J.W. McClelland, B.J. Peterson, A.D. McGuire, and J.M. Melillo. 2013. Insights and issues with simulating terrestrial DOC loading of arctic river networks. Ecological Applications 23:1817-1836.
  • 157. *McConnell, N.A, M.R. Turetsky, A.D. McGuire, E.S. Kane, M.P. Waldrop, and J.W. Harden. 2013. Controls on ecosystem and root respiration across a permafrost and wetland gradient in interior Alaska. Environmental Research Letters 8, 11 pages, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045029.
  • 156. *Genet, H., A.D.McGuire, K. Barrett, A. Breen, E.S. Euskirchen, J.F. Johnstone, E.S. Kasischke, A.M. Melvin, A. Bennett, M.C. Mack, T.S. Rupp, E.A.G. Schuur, M.R. Turetsky, and F. Yuan. 2013. Modeling the effects of fire severity and climate warming on active layer thickness and soil carbon storage of black spruce forests across the landscape in interior Alaska. Environmental Research Letters 8, 13 pages, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045016.
  • 155. He, Y., Q. Zhuang, A.D. McGuire, Y. Liu, and M. Chen. 2013. Alternative ways of using field-based estimates to calibrate ecosystem models and their implications for ecosystem carbon cycle studies. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 118, 11 pages, doi:10.1002/jgrg.20080.
  • 154. Kilinc, M., J. Beringer, L.B. Hutley, N.J. Tapper, and A.D. McGuire. 2013. Carbon and water exchange of the world's tallest angiosperm forest. Agricultural and Forest Meterology 182-183:215-224.
  • 153. Yi, S., N. Li, B. Xiang, X. Wang, B. Ye, and A.D. McGuire. 2013. Representing the effects of alpine grassland vegetation cover on the simulation of soil thermal dynamics by ecosystem models applied to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences 118, 14 pages, doi:10.1002/gjrg.20093.
  • 152. Bali, A. V. Alexeev, R.G. White, D.E. Russell, A.D. McGuire and G.P. Kofinas. 2013. Long-term patterns of abiotic drivers of mosquito activity within summer ranges of Northern Alaska caribou herds (1979-2009). Rangifer 33, Special Issue No. 21: 173-176.
  • 151. *Johnson, K.D., J.W. Harden, A.D. McGuire, M. Clark, F.M. Yuan, and A. Finley. 2013. Permafrost and organic layer interactions over a climate gradient in a discontinuous permafrost zone. Environmental Research Letters 8, 12 pages, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035028.
  • 150. Jafarov, E.E., V.E. Romanovsky, H. Genet, A.D. McGuire, and S.S. Marchenko. 2013. The effects of fire on the thermal stability of permafrost in lowland and upland black spruce forests of interior Alaska in a changing climate. Environmental Research Letters 8, 11 pages, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035030.
  • 149. Mishra, U., J.D. Jastrow, R. Matamala, G. Hugelius, C.D. Koven, J.W. Harden, C.L. Ping, G.J. Michaelson, Z. Fan, R.M. Miller, A.D. McGuire, C. Tarnocai, P. Kuhry, W.J. Riley, K. Schaefer, E.A.G. Schuur, M.T. Jorgenson, and L.D. Hinzman. 2013. Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions: A review of recent progress and remaining challenges. Environmental Research Letters 8, 9 pages, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035020.
  • 148. Zhuang, Q., M. Chen, K. Xu, J. Tang, E. Saikawa, Y. Lu, J.M. Melillo, R.G. Prinn and A.D. McGuire. 2013. Response of global soil consumption of atmospheric methane to changes in atmospheric climate and nitrogen deposition. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 27, 14 pages, doi:10.1002/gbc.20057.
  • 147. Schuur, E.A.G., B.W. Abbott, W.B. Bowden, V. Brovkin, P. Camill, J.P. Canadell, J.P. Chanton, F.S. Chapin III, T.R. Christensen, P. Ciais, P.M. Crill, B.T. Crosby, C.I. Czimczik, G. Grosse, J. Harden, D.J. Hayes, G. Hugelius, J.D. Jastrow, J.B. Jones, T. Kleinin, C.D. Koven, G. Krinner, P. Kuhry, D.M. Lawrence, A.D. McGuire, S.M. Natali, J.A. O'Donnell, C.L. Ping, W.J. Riley, A. Rinke, V.E. Romanovsky, A.B.K. Sannel, C. Schadel, K. Schaefer, J. Sky, Z.M. Subin, C. Tarnocai, M. Turetsky, M. Waldrop, K.M. Walter-Anthony, K.P. Wickland, C.J. Wilson, and S.A. Zimov. 2013. Expert assessment of potential permafrost carbon feedback to climate change. Climatic Change: 119:359-374. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7.
  • 146. Parmentier, F.-J.W., T.R. Christensen, L.L. Sorensen, S. Rysgaard, A.D. McGuire, P.A. Miller, and D.A. Walker. 2013. The impact of lower sea ice extent on arctic greenhouse gas exchange. Nature Climate Change 3:195-202. doi:10.1038/nclimate1784.
  • 145. Olefeldt, D., M.R. Turetsky, P.M. Crill, and A.D. McGuire. 2013. Environmental and physical controls on northern high latitude methane fluxes across permafrost zones. Global Change Biology: 19:589-603. doi:10.1111/gcb.12071.
  • 144. Fan, Z., A.D. McGuire, M.R. Turetsky, J.W. Harden, J.M. Waddington, and E.S. Kane. 2013. The response of soil organic carbon of a rich fen peatland in interior Alaska to projected climate change. Global Change Biology 19:604-620. doi:10.1111/gcb.12041.
  • 143. Kane, E.S., M.R. Chivers, M.R. Turetsky, C.C. Treat, D.G. Petersen, M. Waldrop, J.W. Harden, and A.D. McGuire. 2013. Response of anaerobic carbon cycling to water table manipulation in an Alaskan rich fen. Soil Biology and Biogeochemistry 58:50-60.
  • 142. McGuire, A.D., T. Christensen, D. Hayes, A. Heroult, E. Euskirchen, J.S. Kimball, C. Koven, P. Lefleur, P. Miller, P. Peylin, W. Oechel, M. Williams, and Y. Yi. 2012. An assessment of the carbon balance of arctic tundra: Comparisons among observations, process models, and atmospheric inversions. Biogeosciences 9: 3185-3204, doi:10.5194/bg-9-3185-2012.
  • 141. Turetsky, M.R., B. Bond-Lamberty, E. Euskirchen, J. Talbot, S. Frolking, A.D. McGuire, and E.-S. Tuittila. 2012. The resilience and functional role of moss in boreal and arctic ecosystems. Tansley Review. New Phytologist 196:49-67, doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2012.04254.x.
  • 140. *Yuan, F.-M, S.-H. Yi, A. D. McGuire, K. D. Johnson, J.-J. Liang, J. W. Harden, E. Kasischke, and W.A. Kurz. 2012. Assessment of historical boreal forest carbon dynamics in the Yukon River Basin: Relative roles of climate warming and fire regime changes. Ecological Applications 22:2091-2109.
  • 139. Huntzinger, D.N., W.M. Post, Y. Wei, A.M. Michalak, T.O. West, A.R. Jacobson, I.T. Baker, J.M. Chen, K.J. Davis, D.J. Hayes, F.M. Hoffman, A.K. Jain, S. Liu, A.D. McGuire, R.P. Neilson, C. Potter, B. Poulter, D. Price. B.M. Raczka, H.Q. Tian, P. Thornton, E. Tomelleri, N. Viovy, J. Xiao, W. Yuan, N. Zeng, M. Zhao, and R. Cook. 2012. North American Carbon Project (NACP) regional interim synthesis: Terrestrial biospheric model intercomparison. Ecological Modeling 232:144-157.
  • 138. Waldrop, M.P., J.W. Harden, M.R. Turetsky, D.G. Petersen, A.D. McGuire, M.J.I. Briones, A. Churchill, D.H. Doctor, and L.E. Pruett. 2012. Bacterial and enchytraid abundance accelerate soil carbon turnover along a lowland vegetation gradient in Alaska. Soil Biology & Biochemistry 50:188-198, doi:10.1016/j.soilbio.2012.02.032.
  • 137. Harden, J.W., C.D. Koven, C.-Lu Ping, G. Hugelius, A.D. McGuire, P. Camill, T. Jorgenson, P. Kuhry, G.J. Michaelson, J.A. O'Donnell, E.A.G. Schuur, C. Tarnocai, K. Johnson, and G. Grosse. 2012. Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing. Geophysical Research Letters 39, L15704, 6 pages, doi:10.1029/2012GL051958.
  • 136. Weng, E., Y. Luo, W. Wang, H. Wang, D.J. Hayes, A.D. McGuire, A. Hastings, and D.S. Schimel. 2012. Ecosytem carbon storage capacity as affected by disturbance regimes: A general theoretical model. Journal of Geophysical Research — Biogeosciences 117, G03014,15 pages, doi:10.1029/2012JG002040.
  • 135. Robertson, G.P., S.L. Collins, D.R. Foster, N. Brokaw, H.W. Ducklow, T.L Gragson, C. Gries, S.K. Hamilton, A.D. McGuire, J.C. Moore, E.H. Stanley, R.B. Waide, and M.W. Williams. 2012. Long Term Ecological Research in a Human Dominated World. BioScience. 62:342-353.
  • 134. *Hayes, D.J., D.P. Turner, G. Stinson, A.D. McGuire, Y. Wei, T.O. West, L.S. Heath, B. deJong, B. McConkey, R. Birdsey, W.A. Kurz, A. Jacobson, D.N. Huntzinger, Y. Pan, W.M. Post, and R.B. Cook. 2012. Reconciling estimates of the contemporary North American carbon balance among terrestrial biosphere models, atmospheric inversions and a new approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange from inventory-based data. Global Change Biology. 18:1282-1299. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02627.x.
  • 133. *O’Donnell, J.A., M.T. Jorgenson, J.W. Harden, A.D. McGuire, M.Z. Kanevskiy, and K.P. Wickland. 2012. The effects of permafrost thaw on soil hydrologic, thermal and carbon dynamics in an Alaskan peatland. Ecosystems. 15:213-229. doi:10.1007/s10021-011-9504-0.
  • 132. Wolken, J.M., T.N. Hollingsworth, T.S. Rupp, F.S. Chapin III, S.F. Trainor, T.M Barrett, P.F. Sullivan, A.D. McGuire, E.S. Euskirchen, P.E. Hennon, E.A. Beever, J.S. Conn, L.K. Crone, D.V. D’Amore, N. Fresco, T.A. Hanley, K. Kielland, J.J. Kruse, T. Patterson, E.A.G. Schuur, D.L. Verbyla, and J. Yarie. 2011. Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska’s forest ecosystems. Ecosphere 2, article 124, 35 pages, doi:10.1890/ES11-00288.1.
  • 131. *Johnson, K.D., J. Harden, A.D. McGuire, N.B. Bliss, J.G. Bockheim, M. Clark, T. Nettleton-Hollingsworth, M.T. Jorgenson, E.S. Kane, M. Mack, J. O’Donnell, C.-Lu Ping, E.A.G. Schuur, M.R. Turetsky, and D.W. Valentine. 2011. Soil carbon distribution in Alaska in relation to soil-forming factors. Geoderma 167-168:71-84.
  • 130. *Magness, D.R., J.M. Morton, F. Huettmann, F.S. Chapin III, and A.D. McGuire. 2011. A climate-change adaptation framework to reduce continental-scale vulnerability across conservation reserves. Ecosphere 2. Article 112, 23 pages, doi:10.1890/ES11-00200.1.
  • 129. Liu, S., B. Bond-Lamberty, J.A. Hicke, R. Vargass, S. Zhao, J. Chen, S.L. Edburg, Y. Hu, J. Liu, A.D. McGuire, J. Xiao, R. Keane, W. Yuan, J. Tang, Y. Luo, C. Potter, and J. Oeding. 2011. Simulating the impacts of disturbances on forest carbon cycling in North America: Processes, data, models, and challenges. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 116, G00K08, 22 pages, doi:10.1029/2010JG001585.
  • 128. *Barrett, K., A.D. McGuire, E.E. Hoy, and E.S. Kasischke. 2011. Potential shifts in dominant forest cover in interior Alaska driven by variations in fire severity. Ecological Applications 21:2380-2396.
  • 127. *Hayes, D.J., A.D. McGuire, D.W. Kicklighter, K.R. Gurney, T.J. Burnside, and J.M. Melillo. 2011. Is the northern high latitude land-based CO2 sink weakening? Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 25, GB3018, 14 pages, doi:10.1029/2010GB003813.
  • 126. Pan, Y., R.A. Birdsey, J. Fang, R. Houghton, P.E. Kauppi, W.A. Kurz, O.L. Phillips, A. Shvidenko, S.L. Lewis, J.G. Canadell, P. Ciais, R.B. Jackson, S. Pacala, A.D. McGuire, S. Piao, A. Rautiainen, S. Sitch, and D. Hayes. 2011. A large and persistent carbon sink in the world’s forests. Science 333:988-993, doi:10.1126/science.1201609.
  • 125. Grosse, G., J. Harden, M. Turetsky, A.D. McGuire, P. Camill, C. Tarnocai, S. Frolking, E.A.G. Schuur, T. Jorgenson, S. Marchenko, V. Romanovsky, K.P. Wickland, N. French, M. Waldrop, L. Bourgeau-Chavez, and R.G. Streigl. 2011. Vulnerability of high-latitude soil organic carbon in North America to disturbance. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences, 116, G00K06, 23 pages, doi:10.1029/2010JG001507.
  • 124. *O’Donnell, J.A., J.W. Harden, A.D. McGuire, and V.E. Romanovsky. 2011. Exploring the sensitivity of soil carbon dynamics to climate change, fire disturbance and permafrost thaw in a black spruce ecosystem. Biogeosciences 8:1367-1382, doi:10.5194/bg-8-1367-2011.
  • 123. *O'Donnell, J.A., J.W. Harden, A.D. McGuire, M.Z. Kanevskiy, M.T. Jorgenson, and X. Xu. 2011. (pdf) The effect of fire and permafrost interactions on soil carbon accumulation in an upland black spruce ecosystem of interior Alaska: Implications for post-thaw carbon loss. Global Change Biology 17:1461-1474, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02358.x.
  • 122. *Barrett, K., E.S. Kasischke, A.D. McGuire, M.R. Turetsky, and E.S. Kane. 2010. (pdf) Modeling fire severity in black spruce stands in the Alaskan boreal forest. Remote Sensing of Environment 114:1494-1503, doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2010.02.001.
  • 121. *Yi, S., A.D. McGuire, E.S Kasischke, J. Harden, K. Manies, M. Mack, and M. Turetsky. 2010. (pdf) A dynamic organic soil biogeochemical model for simulating the effects of wildfire on soil environmental and carbon dynamics of black spruce forests. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 115, G04015, 15 pages, doi:10.1029/2010JG001302.
  • 120. *McGuire, A.D., D.J. Hayes, D.W. Kicklighter, M. Manizza, Q. Zhuang, M. Chen, M.J. Follows, K.R. Gurney, J.W. McClelland, J.M. Melillo, B.J. Peterson, and R. Prinn. 2010. (pdf) An analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006. Tellus 62B:455-474, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00497.x.
  • 119. *McGuire, A.D., R.W. Macdonald, E.A.G. Schuur, J.W. Harden, P. Kuhry, D.J. Hayes, T.R. Christensen, and M. Heimann. 2010. (pdf) The carbon budget of the northern cryosphere region. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2:231-236, doi 10.1016/j.Cosust.2010.05.003.
  • 118. Kane, E.S., M.R. Turetsky, J.W. Harden, A.D. McGuire, and J.M. Waddington. 2010. (pdf) Seasonal ice and hydrologic controls on dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen concentrations in a boreal rich fen. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 115, G04012, 15 pages, doi:10.1029/2010JG001366.
  • 117. McGuire, A.D., F.S. Chapin III, and R.W. Ruess. 2010. (pdf) The Dynamics of Change in Alaska's Boreal Forests: Resilience and Vulnerability in Response to Climate Warming. Foreword. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40:1195-1196.
  • 116. Chapin, F.S. III, A.D. McGuire, R.W. Ruess, T.N. Hollingsworth, M.C. Mack, J.F. Johnstone, E. Kasischke, E.S. Euskirchen, J.B. Jones, M.T. Jorgenson, K. Kielland, G.P. Kofinas, M.R. Turetsky, J. Yarie, A.H. Lloyd, and D.L. Taylor. 2010. (pdf) Resilience to climate change in Alaska’s boreal forest. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40:1360-1370. doi:10.1139/X10-074.
  • 115. *Kasishcke, E.S., D. Verbyla, T.S. Rupp, A.D. McGuire, K.A. Murphy, J.L. Allen, E.E. Hoy, R. Jandt, P. Duffy, M. Calef, and M.R. Turetsky. 2010. (pdf) Alaska’s changing fire regime – Implications for the vulnerability of its boreal forests. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40:1313-1324. doi:10.1139/X10-098.
  • 114. *McGuire, A.D., R. Ruess, A. Lloyd, J. Yarie, J. Clein, and G. Juday. 2010. (pdf) Vulnerability of white spruce tree growth in interior Alaska in response to climate variability: Dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40:1197-1209. doi:10.1139/X09-206.
  • 113. *Euskirchen, E.S., A.D. McGuire, F.S. Chapin, and T.S. Rupp. 2010. (pdf) The changing effects of Alaska boreal forests on the climate system. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40:1336-1346. doi:10.1139/X09-209.
  • 112. *O’Donnell, J.A., V.E. Romanovsky, J.W. Harden, and A.D. McGuire. 2009. (pdf) The effect of moisture content on the thermal conductivity of moss and organic soil horizons from black spruce ecosystems in Interior Alaska. Soil Science 174:646-651. doi:10.1097/SS,0b013e3181c4a7f8.
  • 111. *Chivers, M.R., M.R. Turetsky, J.M. Waddington, J.W. Harden, and A.D. McGuire. 2009. (pdf) Effects of experimental water table and temperature manipulations on ecosystem CO2 fluxes in an Alaskan rich fen. Ecosystems 12:1329-1342. doi:10.1007/sI0021-009-9292-y.
  • 110. Jain, A., X. Yang, H. Kheshgi, A.D. McGuire, W. Post, and D. Kicklighter. 2009. (pdf) Nitrogen attenuation of terrestrial carbon cycle response to global environmental factors. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 23, GB4028, 13 pages, doi:10.1029/2009GB003519.
  • 109. Euskirchen, E.S., A.D. McGuire, T.S. Rupp, F.S. Chapin III, and J.E. Walsh. 2009. (pdf) Projected changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire disturbance and the snow season in the western Arctic, 2003 – 2100. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 114, G04022, 15 pages, doi:10.1029/2009JG001095.
  • 108. Xiao, J., Q. Zhuang, E. Liang, A.D. McGuire, A. Moody, D.W. Kicklighter, X. Shao, and J.M. Melillo. 2009. (pdf) Twentieth Century droughts and their impacts on terrestrial carbon cycling in China. Earth Interactions, 13, paper 10, 31 pages, doi:10.1175/2009EI275.1.
  • 107. Griffith, D.B., J.M Scott, R.S. Adamcik, D.M. Ashe, B. Czech, R.L. Fischman, P. Gonzalez, J.J. Lawler, A.D. McGuire, and A. Pidgorna. 2009. (pdf) Climate change adaptation for the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System. Environmental Management 44:1043-1052.
  • 106. *McGuire, A.D., L.G. Anderson, T.R. Christensen, S. Dallimore, L. Guo, D.J. Hayes, M. Heimann, T.D. Lorenson, R.W. Macdonald, and N. Roulet. 2009. (pdf) Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change. Ecological Monographs 79:523-555.
  • 105. Post, E., M.C. Forchhammer, S. Bret-Harte, T.V. Callaghan, T.R. Christensen, B. Elberling, A.D. Fox, O. Gilg, D.S. Hik, T.T. Hoye, R.A. Ims, E. Jeppesen, D.R. Klein, J. Madsen, A.D. McGuire, S. Rysgaard, D.E. Schindler, I. Stirling, M.P. Tamstorf, N.J.C. Tyler, R. van der Wal, J. Welker, P.A. Wookey, and P. Aastrup. 2009. (pdf) Ecological dynamics across the Arctic associated with recent climate change. Science 325:1355-1358.
  • 104. Chapin, F.S. III, J. MacFarland, A.D. McGuire, E.S. Euskirchen, R.W. Ruess, and K. Kielland. 2009. (pdf) The changing global carbon cycle: Linking plant-soil carbon dynamics to global consequences. Journal of Ecology 97:840-850.
  • 103. *Yi, S., A.D. McGuire, J. Harden, E. Kasischke, K. Manies, L. Hinzman, A. Liljedahl, J. Randerson, H. Liu, V. Romanovsky, S. Marchenko, and Y Kim. 2009. (pdf) Interactions between soil thermal and hydrological dynamics in the response of Alaska ecosystems to fire disturbance. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 114, G02015, 20 pages, doi:10.1029/2008JG000841.
  • 102. *Euskirchen, E.S., A.D. McGuire, F.S. Chapin III, S. Yi, and C.C. Thompson. 2009. (pdf) (Appendix 1) (Appendix 2) Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change 2003-2100: Implications for climate feedbacks.  Ecological Applications 19:1022–1043.
  • 101. *Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, P. Duffy, D.W. Kicklighter, and J. Melillo. 2009. (pdf) Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st Century. Global Change Biology 15:1491-1510, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01877.x.
  • 100. *Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, P. Duffy, M. Flannigan, J. Walsh, and J. Melillo. 2009. (pdf) Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach. Global Change Biology 15:578-600, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01679.x.
  • 99. *Yi, S., K. Manies, J. Harden, and A.D. McGuire. 2009. (pdf) Characteristics of organic soil in black spruce forests: Implications for the application of land surface and ecosystem models in cold regions. Geophysical Research Letters 36, L05501, 5 pages, doi:10.1029/2008GL037014.
  • 98. *Trainor, S.F., M. Calef, D. Natcher, F.S. Chapin III, A.D. McGuire, O. Huntington, P. Duffy, T.S. Rupp, L. DeWilde, M. Kwart, N. Fresco, and A.L. Lovecraft. 2009. (pdf) Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska. Polar Research 28:100-118.
  • 97. *Myers-Smith, I., J. Harden, M. Wilmking, C. Fuller, A.D. McGuire, and F.S. Chapin III. 2008. (pdf) Wetland succession in a permafrost collapse: Interactions between fire and thermokarst. Biogeosciences 5:1273-1286.
  • 96.*McGuire, A.D., J. Walsh, J. Kimball, J. Clein, S. Euskirchen, S. Drobot, U. Herzfeld, J. Maslanik, R. Lammers, M. Rawlins, C. Vorosmarty, T. Rupp, W. Wu, and M. Calef. 2008. (pdf) The Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE): Overview and synthesis. Earth Interactions, 12, paper 7, 13 pages, doi:10.1175/2008EI239.1.
  • 95. Chapin, F.S. III, J.T. Randerson, A.D. McGuire, J.A. Foley, and C.B. Field. 2008. (pdf) Changing feedbacks in the climate-biosphere system. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 6:313-320, doi:10.1890/080005.
  • 94. *Chapin, F.S., III, S.F. Trainor, O. Huntington, A.L. Lovecraft, E. Zavaleta, D.C. Natcher, A.D. McGuire, J.L. Nelson, L. Ray, M. Calef, N. Fresco, H. Huntington, T.S. Rupp, L. DeWilde, and R.A. Naylor. 2008. (pdf) Increasing wildfire in Alaska’s boreal forest: Causes, consequences, and pathways to potential solutions of a wicked problem. BioScience. 58:531-540.
  • 93. Turetsky, M.R., C.C. Treat, M. Waldrop, M. Waddington, J.W. Harden, and A.D. McGuire. 2008. (pdf) Short-term response of methane fluxes and methanogen activity to water table and soil warming manipulations in an Alaskan peatland. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 113, G00A10, 15 pages, doi:10.1029/2007JG000496.
  • 92. *Calef, M.P., A.D. McGuire, and F.S. Chapin III. 2008. (pdf) Human influences on wildfire in Alaska from 1988 through 2005: An analysis of spatial patterns of human impacts. Earth Interactions, 12, paper 1, 17 pages, doi:10.1175/2007EI220.1.
  • 91. *Myers-Smith, I., A.D. McGuire, J.W. Harden, and F.S. Chapin III. 2007. (pdf) The influence of disturbance on carbon exchange in a permafrost collapse and adjacent burned forest. Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences 112, G04017, doi:10.1029/2007JG000423.
  • 90. *Euskirchen, E.S., A.D. McGuire, and F.S. Chapin III. 2007. (pdf) Energy feedbacks of northern high-latitude ecosystems to the climate system due to reduced snow cover during 20th Century warming. Global Change Biology 13:2425-2438.
  • 89. Kane, E.S., E.S. Kasischke, D.W. Valentine, M.R. Turetsky, and A.D. McGuire. 2007. (pdf) Topographic influences on wildfire consumption of soil organic carbon in interior Alaska: Implications for black carbon accumulation. Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences 112, G03017, doi:10.1029/2007JG000458.
  • 88. *Clein, J.S., A.D. McGuire, E.S. Euskirchen, and M.P. Calef. 2007. (pdf) The effects of different climate input data sets on simulated carbon dynamics in the Western Arctic. Earth Interactions Volume 11, paper 12, 24 pages, doi:10.1175/EI229.1.
  • 87. Duffy, P.A., J. Epting, J.M. Graham, T.S. Rupp, and A.D. McGuire. 2007. (pdf) Analysis of burn severity patterns using remotely sensed data. International Journal of Wildland Fire 16:277-284.
  • 86. *Balshi, M.S., A.D. McGuire, Q. Zhuang, J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, E.S. Kasischke, C. Wirth, M. Flannigan, J. Harden, J.S. Clein, T.J. Burnside, J. McAllister, W.A. Kurz, M. Apps, and A. Shvidenko. 2007. (pdf) The role of fire disturbance in the carbon dynamics of the pan-boreal region: A process-based analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 112, G02029, doi:10.1029/2006JG000380.
  • 85. Wu, W., A.H. Lynch, S. Drobot, J. Maslanik, A.D. McGuire, and U. Herzfeld. 2007. (pdf) Comparative analysis of the western arctic surface climate with modeling and observations. Earth Interactions Volume 11, paper 6, 24 pages, doi:10.1175/EI202.1.
  • 84. *Sitch, S., A.D. McGuire, J. Kimball, N. Gedney, J. Gamon, R. Engstrom, A. Wolf, Q. Zhuang, J.S. Clein, and K.C. McDonald. 2007. (pdf) Assessing the carbon balance of circumpolar arctic tundra using remote sensing and process modeling. Ecological Applications 17:213-234.
  • 83. *Zhuang, Q., J. M. Melillo, A. D. McGuire, D. W. Kicklighter, R. G. Prinn, P. A. Steudler, B. S. Felzer, and S. Hu. 2007. (pdf) Net emissions of CH4 and CO2 in Alaska: Implications for the region’s greenhouse gas budget. Ecological Applications 17:203-212.
  • 82. *Kimball, J.S., M. Zhao, A.D. McGuire, F.A. Heinsch, J. Clein, M. Calef, W.M. Jolly, S. Kang, S.E. Euskirchen, K.C. McDonald, and S.W. Running. 2007. (pdf) Recent climate driven increases in vegetation productivity for the western Arctic: Evidence of an acceleration of the northern terrestrial carbon cycle. Earth Interactions Volume 11, paper 4, 30 pages, doi:10.1175EI180.1.
  • 81. Rupp, T.S., X. Chen, M. Olson, and A.D. McGuire. 2007. (pdf) Sensitivity of simulated boreal fire dynamics to uncertainties in climate drivers. Earth Interactions Volume 11, paper 3, 21 pages, doi:10.1175/EI189.1.
  • 80. Chapin, F.S., III, G.M. Woodwell, J.T. Randerson, G.M. Lovett, E.B. Rastetter, G.M. Lovett, D.D. Baldocchi, D.A. Clark, M.E. Harmon, D.S. Schimel, R. Valentini, C. Wirth, J.D. Aber, J.J. Cole, M.L. Goulden, J.W. Harden, M. Heimann, R.W. Howarth, P.A. Matson, A.D. McGuire, J.M. Melillo, H.A. Mooney, J.C. Neff, R.A. Houghton, M.L. Pace, M.G. Ryan, S.W. Running, O.E. Sala, W.H. Schlesinger, and E.-D. Schulze. 2006. (pdf) Reconciling carbon-cycle concepts, terminology, and methods. Ecosystems 9:1041-1050.
  • 79. McGuire, A.D., F.S. Chapin III, J.E. Walsh, and C. Wirth. 2006. (pdf) Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 31:61-91.
  • 78. McGuire, A.D. and M.A. Apps. 2006. (pdf) Climate-Disturbance Interactions in Boreal Forest Ecosystems. Foreword and peer-reviewed papers selected from the IBFRA Conference, Fairbanks, Alaska, 3 – 6 May 2004. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 11:765-931.
  • 77. *Thompson, C.D., A.D. McGuire, J.S. Clein, F.S. Chapin III, and J. Beringer. 2006. (pdf) Net carbon exchange across the arctic tundra-boreal forest transition in Alaska 1981 - 2000. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 11:805-827.
  • 76. *Euskirchen, E.S., A.D. McGuire, D.W. Kicklighter, Q. Zhuang, J.S. Clein, R.J. Dargaville, D.G. Dye, J.S. Kimball, K.C. McDonald, J.M. Melillo, V.E. Romanovsky, and N.V. Smith. 2006. (pdf) Importance of recent shifts in soil thermal dynamics on growing season length, productivity, and carbon sequestration in terrestrial high-latitude ecosystems. Global Change Biology 12:731-750.
  • 75. *Zhang, X., A.D. McGuire, and R.W. Ruess. 2006. (pdf) Scaling uncertainties in estimating canopy foliar maintenance respiration for black spruce ecosystems in Alaska. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 11:147-171.
  • 74. *Riordan, B., D. Verbyla, and A.D. McGuire. 2006. (pdf) Shrinking ponds in subarctic Alaska based on 1950-2002 remotely sensed images. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences 111, G04002, doi:10.1029/2005JG000150.
  • 73. Zhuang, Q., J.M. Melillo, M.C. Sarofim, D.W. Kicklighter, A.D. McGuire, B.S. Felzer, A. Sokolov, R.G. Prinn, P.A. Steudler, and S. Hu. 2006. (pdf) CO2 and CH4 exchanges between land ecosystems and the atmosphere in northern high latitudes over the 21st Century. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L17403, doi:10.1029/2006GL026972.
  • 72. *Chapin, F.S., III, M. Sturm, M.C. Serreze, J.P. McFadden, J.R. Key, A.H. Lloyd, A.D. McGuire, T.S. Rupp, A.H. Lynch, J.P. Schimel, J. Beringer, H.E. Epstein, L.D. Hinzman, G. Jia, C.-L. Ping, K. Tape, W.L. Chapman, E. Euskirchen, C.D. Thompson, D.A. Walker, and J.M. Welker. 2005. (pdf) Role of Land-Surface Changes in Arctic Summer Warming. Science 310:657-660.
  • 71. Apps, M.A. and A.D. McGuire. 2005. (pdf) Climate-Disturbance Interactions in Boreal Forest Ecosystems. Foreword and peer-reviewed papers selected from the IBFRA Conference, Fairbanks, Alaska, 3 – 6 May 2004. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35: 2073-2293.
  • 70. *Maier, J.A.K., J. Ver Hoef, A.D. McGuire, R.T. Bowyer, L. Saperstein, and H.A. Maier. 2005. (pdf) Distribution and density of moose in relation to landscape characteristics: Effects of scale. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35:2233-2243.
  • 69. *Beringer, J., F.S. Chapin III, C.C. Thompson, and A.D. McGuire. 2005. (pdf) Surface energy exchanges along a tundra-forest transition and feedbacks to climate. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 131:143-161.
  • 68. Hinzman, L.D., N.D. Bettez, W.R. Bolton, F.S. Chapin, M.B. Dyurgerov, C.L. Fastie, B. Griffith, R.D.. Hollister, A. Hope, H.P. Huntington, A.M. Jensen, G.J. Jia, T. Jorgenson, D.L. Kane, D.R. Klein, G. Kofinas, A.H. Lynch, A.H. Lloyd, A.D. McGuire, F.E. Nelson, M. Nolan, W.C. Oechel, T.E. Osterkamp, C.H. Racine, V.E. Romanovsky, R.S. Stone, D.A. Stow, M. Sturm, C.E. Tweedie, G.L. Vourlitis, M.D. Walker, D.A. Walker, P.J. Webber, J.M. Welker, K.S. Winker, and K. Yoshikawa. 2005. (pdf) Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other Arctic regions. Climatic Change 72:251-298.
  • 67. *Calef, M. P., A.D. McGuire, H.E. Epstein, T.S. Rupp, and H.H. Shugart. 2005. (pdf) Analysis of vegetation distribution in Interior Alaska and sensitivity to climate change using a logistic regression approach. Journal of Biogeography 32:863-878.
  • 66. *Zhuang, Q., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, R.G. Prinn, A.D. McGuire, P.A. Steudler, B.S. Felzer, and S. Hu. 2004. (pdf) Methane fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere at northern high latitudes during the past century: A retrospective analysis with a process-based biogeochemistry model. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 18, GB3010, doi:10.1029/2004GB002239.
  • 65. Kittel, T.G.F., N.A. Rosenbloom, J.A. Royle, C. Daly, W.P. Gibson, H.H. Fisher, P. Thornton, D.N. Yates, S. Aulenbach, C. Kaufman, R. McKeown, D. Bachelet, D.S. Schimel, and VEMAP2 Participants (including A.D. McGuire). 2004. (pdf) The VEMAP Phase 2 Bioclimatic Database I: A gridded historical (20th Century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA. Climate Research 27:151-170.
  • 64. *Stow, D., A. Hope, A.D. McGuire, D. Verbyla, J. Gamon, K. Huemmrich, S. Houston, C. Racine, M. Sturm, K. Tape, K. Yoshikawa, L. Hinzman, C. Tweedie, B. Noyle, C. Silapaswan, D. Douglas, B. Griffith, G. Jia, H. Epstein, D. Walker, S. Daeschner, A. Petersen, L. Zhou, and R. Myneni. 2004. (pdf) Remote sensing of vegetation and land-cover changes in Arctic tundra ecosystems. Remote Sensing of Environment 89:281-308.
  • 63. *Thompson, C.D., J. Beringer, F.S. Chapin III, and A.D. McGuire. 2004. (pdf) Relationship of structural complexity to land surface exchange along a gradient from arctic tundra to forest. Journal of Vegetation Science 15:397-406.
  • 62. McGuire, A.D., M. Sturm, and F.S. Chapin III. 2003. (pdf) Arctic Transitions in the Land-Atmosphere System (ATLAS): Background, objectives, results, and future directions. Journal of Geophysical Research –Atmospheres 108(D2), 8166, doi:10.1029/2002JD002367.
  • 61. *Zhuang, Q., A.D. McGuire, J.M. Melillo, J.S. Clein, R.J. Dargaville, D.W. Kicklighter, R.B. Myneni, J. Dong, V.E. Romanovsky, J. Harden, and J.E. Hobbie. 2003. (pdf) Carbon cycling in extratropical terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th Century: A modeling analysis of the influences of soil thermal dynamics. Tellus 55B:751-776.
  • 60. *Chapin, F.S. III, T.S. Rupp, A.M Starfield, L. DeWilde, E.S. Zavaleta, N. Fresco, J. Henkelman, and A.D. McGuire. 2003. Planning for resilience: Modeling change in human-fire interactions in the Alaskan boreal forest. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 1:255-261.
  • 59. Tian, H., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, S. Pan, J. Liu, A.D. McGuire, and B. Moore III. 2003. (pdf) Regional carbon dynamics in monsoon Asia and its implications for the global carbon cycle. Global and Planetary Change 37:201-217.
  • 58. Bigelow, N. H., L. B. Brubaker, M. E. Edwards, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, P. M. Anderson, A. A. Andreev, P.J. Bartlein, T.R. Christensen, W. Cramer, J. O. Kaplan, A. V. Lozhkin, N.V. Matveyeva, D. F. Murray, A.D. McGuire, V.Y. Razzhivin, J. C. Ritchie, B. Smith, D.A. Walker, K. Gajewski, V. Wolf, B. Holmqvist, U. Igarashi, K. Kremenestskii, A. Paus, M. F. J. Pisaric, and V. S. Volkova. 2003. (pdf) Climate change and Arctic ecosystems I: Vegetation changes north of 55° N between the last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene and present. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres 108(D19), 8170, doi:10.1029/2002JD002558.
  • 57. Kaplan, J.O., N.H. Bigelow, P.J. Bartlein, T.R. Christensen, W. Cramer, S.P. Harrison, N.V. Matveyeva, A.D. McGuire, D.F. Murray, I.C. Prentice, V.Y. Razzhivin, B. Smith, D.A. Walker, P.M. Anderson, A.A. Andreev, L.B. Brubaker, M.E. Edwards, A.V. Lozhkin, and J.C. Ritchie. 2003. (pdf) Climate change and Arctic ecosystems II: Modeling, paleodat-model comparisons, and future projections. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres 108(D19), 8171, doi:10.1029/2002JD002559.
  • 56. Overland, J., J. Calder, F. Fetterer, A. D. McGuire, J. Morison, J. Richter-Menge, N. Soreide, and J. Walsh. 2003. (pdf) SEARCH Workshop on Large-Scale Atmosphere/Cryosphere Observations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84:1077-1081.
  • 55. *McGuire, A.D., C. Wirth, M. Apps, J. Beringer, J. Clein, H. Epstein, D.W. Kicklighter, J. Bhatti, F.S. Chapin III, B. de Groot, D. Efremov, W. Eugster, M. Fukuda, T. Gower, L. Hinzman, B. Huntley, G.J. Jia, E. Kasischke, J. Melillo, V. Romanovsky, A. Shvidenko, E. Vaganov, and D. Walker. 2002. (pdf) Environmental variation, vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water/energy exchange in high latitudes. Journal of Vegetation Science 13:301-314.
  • 54. *Zhuang, Q., A.D. McGuire, J. Harden, K.P. O'Neill, V.E. Romanovsky, and J. Yarie. 2002. (pdf) Modeling soil thermal and carbon dynamics of a fire chronosequence in interior Alaska. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres 107, 8147, doi:10.1029/2001JD001244 [printed 108(D1), 2003].
  • 53. Pan, Y., A. D. McGuire, J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, S. Sitch, and I.C. Prentice. 2002. (pdf) A biogeochemistry-based successional model and its application along a moisture gradient in the continental United States. Journal of Vegetation Science 13:369-380.
  • 52. *Dargaville, R., A.D. McGuire, and P. Rayner. 2002. (pdf) Estimates of large-scale fluxes in high latitudes from terrestrial biosphere models and an inversion of atmospheric CO2 measurements. Climatic Change 55:273-285.
  • 51. *Dargaville, R.J., M. Heimann, A.D. McGuire, I.C. Prentice, D.W. Kicklighter, F. Joos, J.S. Clein, G. Esser, J. Foley, J. Kaplan, R.A. Meier, J.M. Melillo, B. Moore III, N. Ramankutty, T. Reichenau, A. Schloss, S. Sitch, H. Tian, L.J. Williams, U. Wittenberg. 2002. (pdf) Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models with atmospheric CO2 measurements: Results from transient simulations considering increasing CO2, climate, and land-use effects. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 16, 1092, doi:10.1029/2001GB001426.
  • 50. *Clein, J.S., A.D. McGuire, X. Zhuang, D.W. Kicklighter, J.M. Melillo, S.C. Wofsy, P.G. Jarvis, and J. M. Massheder. 2002. (pdf) Historical and projected carbon balances of mature black spruce ecosystems across North America: The role of carbon-nitrogen interactions. Plant and Soil 242:15-32.
  • 49. Perez-Garcia, J., L.A. Joyce, and A.D. McGuire. 2002. (pdf) Temporal uncertainties of integrated ecological/economic assessments at the global and regional scales. Forest Ecology and Management 162:105-115.
  • 48. *Golet, G.H., P.E. Seiser, A.D. McGuire, D.D. Roby, J.B. Fischer, K.J. Kuletz, D.B. Irons, T.A. Dean, S.C. Jewett, and S.H. Newman. 2002. (pdf) Long-term direct and indirect effects of the Exxon Valdez oil spill on Pigeon Guillemots in Prince William Sound, Alaska? Marine Ecology Progress Series 241:287-304.
  • 47. Perez-Garcia, J., L.A. Joyce, A.D. McGuire, and X. Xiao. 2002. (pdf) Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector. Climatic Change 54:439-461.
  • 46. *McGuire, A.D., S. Sitch, J.S. Clein, R. Dargaville, G. Esser, J. Foley, M. Heimann, F. Joos, J. Kaplan, D.W. Kicklighter, R.A. Meier, J.M. Melillo, B. Moore III, I.C. Prentice, N. Ramankutty, T. Reichenau, A. Schloss, H. Tian, L.J. Williams, and U. Wittenberg. 2001. (pdf) Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: Analyses of CO2, climate and land-use effects with four process-based ecosystem models. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15:183-206.
  • 45. *Silapaswan, C.S., D. Verbyla, and A.D. McGuire. 2001. (pdf) Land cover change on the Seward Peninsula: The use of remote sensing to evaluate potential influences of climate change on historical vegetation dynamics. Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing 5:542-554.
  • 44. *Zhuang, Q., V.E. Romanovsky, and A.D. McGuire. 2001. (pdf) Incorporation of a permafrost model into a large-scale ecosystem model: Evaluation of temporal and spatial scaling issues in simulating soil thermal dynamics. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. 106:33,649-33,670.
  • 43. *Amthor, J.S., J.M. Chen, J.S. Clein, S.E. Frolking, M.L. Goulden, R.F. Grant, J.S. Kimball, A.W. King, A.D. McGuire, N.T. Nikolov, C.S. Potter, S. Wang, and S.C. Wofsy. 2001. (pdf) Boreal forest CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration predicted by nine ecosystem process models: Intermodel comparisons and relationships to field measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres 106:33,623-33,648.
  • 42. *Potter, C., S. Wang, N.T. Nikolov, A.D. McGuire, J. Liu, A.W. King, J.S. Kimball, R.F. Grant, S.E. Frolking, J.S. Clein, J.M. Chen, and J.S. Amthor. 2001. Comparison of boreal ecosystem model sensitivity to variability in climate and forest site parameters. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres 106:33,671-33,688.
  • 41. Pan Y., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, X. Xiao, and A.D. McGuire. 2001. (pdf) Modeling structural and functional responses of terrestrial ecosystems in China to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2. Acta Phytoecologica Sinica 25(2):175-189.
  • 40. *McGuire, A.D., J. Clein, J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, R.A. Meier, C.J. Vorosmarty, and M.C. Serreze. 2000. (pdf) Modeling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: The sensitivity of pan-arctic carbon storage to temporal and spatial variation in climate. Global Change Biology 6:S141-S159.
  • 39. *McGuire, A.D., J.M. Melillo, J. T. Randerson, W.J. Parton, M. Heimann, R.A. Meier, J.S. Clein, D.W. Kicklighter, and W. Sauf. 2000. (pdf) Modeling the effects of snowpack on heterotrophic respiration across northern temperate and high latitude regions: Comparison with measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide in high latitudes. Biogeochemistry 48:91-114.
  • 38. Chapin, F.S. III., A.D. McGuire, J. Randerson, R. Pielke, Sr., D. Baldocchi, S.E. Hobbie, N. Roulet, W. Eugster, E. Kasischke, E.B. Rastetter, S.A. Zimov, W.C. Oechel, and S.W. Running. 2000. (pdf) Arctic and boreal ecosystems of western North America as components of the climate system. Global Change Biology 6:S211-S223.
  • 37. *Clein J., B. Kwiatkowski, A.D. McGuire, J.E. Hobbie, E.B. Rastetter, J.M. Melillo, and D.W. Kicklighter. 2000. (pdf) Modeling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: A comparison of a plot- and a global-scale ecosystem model to identify process-based uncertainties. Global Change Biology 6:S127-S140.
  • 36. Tian, H., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, A.D. McGuire, J.V.K. Helfrich III, B. Moore III, and C.J. Vorosmarty. 2000. Climatic and biotic controls on annual carbon storage in Amazononian ecosystems. Global Ecology and Biogeography 9:315-336.
  • 35. Schimel, D., J. Melillo, H. Tian, A.D. McGuire, D. Kicklighter, T. Kittel, N. Rosenbloom, S. Running, P. Thornton, D. Ojima, W. Parton, R. Kelly, M. Sykes, R. Neilson, B. Rizzo, and L. Pitelka. 2000. Contribution of increasing CO2 and climate to carbon storage by ecosystems of the United States (1980-1993). Science 287:2004-2006.
  • 34. *Seiser, P.E., L.K. Duffy, A.D. McGuire, D. D. Roby, G. Golet, and M.A. Litzow. 2000. (pdf) Comparison of Pigeon Guillemot, Cepphus columba, blood parameters from oiled and unoiled areas of Alaska eight years after the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Marine Pollution Bulletin 40:152-164.
  • 33. Kicklighter, D.W., M. Bruno, S. Donges, G. Esser, M. Heimann, J. Helfrich, F. Ift, F. Joos, J. Kaduk, G.H. Kohlmaier, A.D. McGuire, J.M. Melillo, R. Meyer, B. Moore III, A. Nadler, I.C. Prentice, W. Sauf, A.L. Schloss, S. Sitch, U. Wittenberg, and G. Wurth. 1999. A first-order analysis of the potential role of CO2 fertilization to affect the global carbon budget: A comparison of four terrestrial biosphere models. Tellus 51B:343-366.
  • 32. Tian, H., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, A.D. McGuire, and J. Helfrich. 1999. The sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to historical climate variability and atmospheric CO2 in the United States. Tellus 51B:414-452.
  • 31. Nungesser, M.K., L.A. Joyce, and A.D. McGuire. 1999. Effects of spatial aggregation on predictions of forest climate change response. Climate Research 11:109-124.
  • 30. Kicklighter, D.W., A. Bondeau, A.L. Schloss, J. Kaduk, A.D. McGuire, and participants of "Potsdam '95". 1999. Comparing global models of terrestrial net primary production (NPP): Global pattern and differentiation by major biomes. Global Change Biology 5:S16-S24.
  • 29. Xiao, X., C.J. Vorosmarty, J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, H. Tian, A.D. McGuire, Y. Pan, and Z. Yang. 1999. Transient climate change and potential croplands of the world in the 21st Century. Sistema Terra 8:96-109.
  • 28. Tian, H., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, A.D. McGuire, B. Moore III, and C.J. Vorosmarty. 1999. Reply to comments by Crutzen et al. and Schulman et al. on Nature 396:664-667, Parameters for global ecosystem models. Nature 399:536.
  • 27. Tian, H., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, A.D. McGuire, B. Moore III, and C.J. Vorosmarty. 1998. Effect of interannual climate variability on carbon storage in undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems. Nature 396:664-667.
  • 26. Pan, Y., J.M. Melillo, A.D. McGuire, D.W. Kicklighter, L.F. Pitelka, K. Hibbard, L.L. Pierce, S.W. Running, D.S. Ojima, W.J. Parton, D.S. Schimel, and other VEMAP Members. 1998. Modeled responses of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO2: A comparison of simulation studies among the biogeochemistry models of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP). Oecologia 114:389-404.
  • 25. Heimann, M., G. Esser, A. Haxeltine, J. Kaduk, D.W. Kicklighter, W. Knorr, G.H. Kohlmaier, A.D. McGuire, J. Melillo, B. Moore, R.D. Otto, I.C. Prentice, W. Sauf, A. Schloss, S. Sitch, U. Wittenberg, G. Wurth. 1998. Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models through simulations of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2: First results of a model intercomparison study. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 12:1-24.
  • 24. Wittenberg, U., M. Heimann, G. Esser, A.D. McGuire, and W. Sauf. 1998. On the influence of biomass burning on the seasonal CO2 signal as observed at monitoring stations. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 12:531-544.
  • 23. Xiao, X., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, A.D. McGuire, R.G. Prinn, C. Wang, P.H. Stone, and A. Sokolov. 1998. Transient climate change and net ecosystem production of the terrestrial biosphere. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 12:345-360.
  • 22. Xiao, X., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, Y. Pan, A.D. McGuire, and J. Helfrich. 1998. Primary production of terrestrial ecosystems in China and its equilibrium responses to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Acta Phytoecologica Sinica 22:97-118.
  • 21. McGuire, A.D.,J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, Y. Pan, X. Xiao, J. Helfrich, B. Moore III, C.J. Vorosmarty, and A.L. Schloss. 1997. (pdf) Equilibrium responses of global net primary production and carbon storage to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide: Sensitivity to changes in vegetation nitrogen concentration. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 11:173-189.
  • 20. Schimel, D.S., VEMAP Participants (including A. David McGuire), and B.H. Braswell. 1997. Spatial variability in ecosystem processes at the continental scale: Models, data and the role of disturbance. Ecological Monographs 67:251-271.
  • 19. Xiao, X., D.W. Kicklighter, J.M. Melillo, A.D. McGuire, P.H. Stone, and A.P. Sokolov. 1997. Linking a global terrestrial biogeochemical model with a 2-dimensional climate model: Implications for the global carbon budget. Tellus 49B:18-37.
  • 18. Perez-Garcia, J., L.A. Joyce, C.S. Binkley, and A.D. McGuire. 1997. Economic impacts of climatic change on the global forest sector: An integrated ecological/economic assessment. Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology 27:S123-S138.
  • 17. Melillo, J.M., R.A. Houghton, D.W. Kicklighter, and A.D. McGuire. 1996. Tropical deforestation and the global carbon budget. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 21:293-310.
  • 16. Pan, Y., A.D. McGuire, D.W. Kicklighter, and J.M. Melillo. 1996. The importance of climate and soils for estimates of net primary production: A sensitivity analysis with the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model. Global Change Biology 2:5-23.
  • 15. VEMAP Members (including A. D. McGuire). 1995. Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP): Comparing biogeography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO2 doubling. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 9:407-437.
  • 14. McGuire, A.D., J.M. Melillo, and L.A. Joyce. 1995. (pdf) The role of nitrogen in the response of forest net primary production to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 26:473-503.
  • 13. McGuire, A.D., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, and L.A. Joyce. 1995. (pdf) Equilibrium responses of soil carbon to climate change: Empirical and process-based estimates. Journal of Biogeography 22:785-796.
  • 12. Joyce, L.A., J. Mills, L. Heath, A.D. McGuire, R.W. Haynes, and R.A. Birdsey. 1995. Forest sector impacts from changes in forest productivity under climate change. Journal of Biogeography 22:703-714.
  • 11. Kittel, T.G.F., N.A. Rosenbloom, T.H. Painter, D.S. Schimel, and VEMAP Modeling Participants (including A. David McGuire). 1995. The VEMAP integrated database for modeling United States ecosystem/vegetation sensitivity to climate change. Journal of Biogeography 22:857-862.
  • 10. Kicklighter, D.W., J.M. Melillo, W.T. Peterjohn, E.B. Rastetter, A.D. McGuire, P.A. Steudler, and J.D. Aber. 1994. Aspects of spatial and temporal aggregation in estimating regional carbon dioxide fluxes from temperate forest soils. Journal of Geophysical Research 99,D1:1303-1315.
  • 9. McGuire, A.D., L.A. Joyce, D.W. Kicklighter, J.M. Melillo, G. Esser, and C.J. Vorosmarty. 1993. (pdf) Productivity response of climax temperate forests to elevated temperature and carbon dioxide: A North American comparison between two global models. Climatic Change 24:287-310.
  • 8. Melillo, J.M., A.D. McGuire, D.W. Kicklighter, B. Moore III, C.J. Vorosmarty, and A.L. Schloss. 1993. Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production. Nature 63:234-240.
  • 7. McGuire, A.D. 1993. Interactions for pollination between two synchronously blooming Hedysarum species (Fabaceae) in Alaska. American Journal of Botany 80:147-152.
  • 6. McGuire, A.D., J.M. Melillo, L.A. Joyce, D.W. Kicklighter, A.L. Grace, B. Moore III, and C.J. Vorosmarty. 1992. (pdf) Interactions between carbon and nitrogen dynamics in estimating net primary productivity for potential vegetation in North America. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 6:101-124.
  • 5. McGuire, A.D. and W.S. Armbruster. 1991. An experimental test for reproductive interactions between two sequentially blooming Saxifraga species (Saxifragaceae). American Journal of Botany 78:214-219.
  • 4. Inouye, D.W. and A.D. McGuire. 1991. Effects of snowpack on timing and abundance of flowering in Delphinium nelsonii: Implications for climate change. American Journal of Botany 78:997-1001.
  • 3. Armbruster, W.S. and A.D. McGuire. 1991. Experimental assessment of reproductive interactions between sympatric Aster and Erigeron (Asteraceae) in interior Alaska. American Journal of Botany 78:1449-1457.
  • 2. McGuire, A.D. 1986. Some aspects of the breeding biology of Red-winged Blackbirds in Alaska. Wilson Bulletin 98:257-266.
  • 1. Henttonen, H., A.D. McGuire, and L. Hansson. 1985. Comparisons of amplitudes and frequencies (spectral analyses) of density variations in long-term data sets of Clethrionomys species. Annales Zoologici Fennici 22:221-228.